War and Peace in the Middle East – and why Israel has already lost

A long-standing local conflict that seemed to be somewhat contained suddenly erupts into a major global flashpoint and threatens to engulf the whole region in a spiral of violence and death. Most likely, Israel will in the coming days and weeks use such brutal force that it might well be able to claim some sort of victory. Over the long term, though, and regardless of what happens now, Israel has already lost.

China is the reason why there is war in Ukraine

Without China’s support, Vladimir Putin would not have been able to launch a full-scale war on Ukraine, and without China’s support he would not be able to pursue it. Far from being interested in brokering a peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv, as it seems to pretend, China knows that the continuation of Russia’s aggression and assault on the West-dominated international order is fundamentally in its interest.

Polycrisis? What Polycrisis?

The concept of ‘polycrisis’ is increasingly being used to designate the accumulation of compounding crises that human societies are facing, and that they are increasingly struggling to address and failing to solve. Yet this concept somehow misses the fact that there might be an inherent historical logic to the piling up and conjunction of these crises at this particular moment in time, as well as to the fact that whatever we are doing to address them appears to be failing.

War and Peace in the Crisis of Complexity

As Russia’s war against Ukraine looks increasingly likely to last, many in the West and beyond are growing wary of the risks of a protracted conflict and are calling on Kyiv to make concessions to end the hostilities. The idea that a negotiated settlement could swiftly end this war, however, is based on a misunderstanding of its geopolitical nature as well as its historical meaning.

Beyond Putin’s war – The inconvenient “Russian question”

Vladimir Putin’s ongoing attempt at bringing a definitive resolution to the “Ukrainian question” is raising, once again, the inconvenient question of Russia’s difficult relationship with the world around it – a question that predates Putin and will likely outlast him.

Putin’s war and the resolution of the “Ukrainian question”

It looks increasingly likely that Vladimir Putin may not just be pursuing the neutralization, demilitarization and “denazification” of Ukraine, as he claims, but a more definitive resolution of what some in Russia refer to as the “Ukrainian question”.

Propaganda and confusionism in the era of junk information

Banning Russia-backed media/propaganda outlets is fully justified and legitimate, yet will only marginally decrease the level of ambient confusion that prevails in the West. Junk information has become as prevalent and inescapable as junk food, and it is here to stay.

Has Putin overplayed his hand?

We are still in the early stages of an unfolding tragedy and it is too early to draw firm lessons from what has been happening so far, but it looks increasingly likely that Vladimir Putin may have overplayed his hand.

Putin’s great war of revenge

This is Putin’s war. This is not just Putin’s war on the independence of Ukraine. This is Putin’s great war of revenge.

Welcome to the age of energy disruptions

We have entered the age of global energy disruptions, and most likely will never really get out of it.